AMP shares surged nearly 10% after the financial services company forecast a much stronger first-half profit than it delivered a year earlier.
AMP Limited (ASX: AMP) closed 9.83% higher at A$1.90 on Thursday, making it one of the strongest performers on the ASX 200. The rally followed an earnings update showing that underlying net profit after tax is expected to reach between A$170 million and A$180 million for the six months ended 30 June 2026.
That would represent growth of approximately 30% to 37% from the A$131 million recorded in the first half of 2025. The size of the improvement appears to have surprised investors and raised hopes that AMP’s long-running recovery may be gaining momentum.
What Is Driving AMP’s Stronger Profit?
The largest positive contributor is AMP’s China partnerships.
AMP expects these businesses to contribute approximately A$56 million after tax during the first half. That is 24% higher than their contribution in the second half of 2025. The update suggests that these partnerships are becoming an increasingly important part of AMP’s earnings.
Higher interest rates also supported group investment income. AMP expects a favourable impact of approximately A$5 million compared with the first half of last year.
The company’s Platforms division is expected to receive another A$5 million benefit from the North Guarantee, while AMP will recognise approximately A$13 million in carried interest linked to the partial sale of assets held in a legacy infrastructure fund.
These positive items will be partly offset by a negative revaluation of approximately A$12 million across other partnership investments.
Is AMP’s Turnaround Working?
The update is encouraging because it shows that AMP is generating stronger earnings from several parts of the business.
The company has spent recent years simplifying its operations, reducing costs and focusing more heavily on wealth management, banking and investment platforms. Stronger partnership earnings and improved investment income suggest that this strategy is producing results.
However, investors should be careful not to treat every part of the forecast as recurring income.
The A$13 million carried-interest contribution is connected to an asset sale and may not be repeated in future reporting periods. AMP has said that additional carried interest may still be received, but the amount and timing remain uncertain.
This means the quality and sustainability of AMP’s underlying earnings will be just as important as the headline profit figure.
What Should AMP Investors Watch Next?
AMP will release its complete first-half results on 6 August 2026 and provide further guidance for the full financial year.
Investors should watch the performance of the Australian wealth business, flows into the North investment platform, costs, margins and AMP Bank’s loan growth and credit quality.
Capital management will also be important. Shareholders will want to know whether stronger earnings could support dividends, further share buybacks or additional investment in growth.
AMP’s latest forecast is a positive sign, and the strong share-price response shows that investor expectations have improved. However, the August result will need to show that the earnings recovery is supported by sustainable operating growth rather than mainly by investment gains and one-off items.
