Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) shares closed 15.3% lower at A$12.03 on Thursday 22 October 2026 after the furniture retailer warned that first-half profit will fall as Australian and New Zealand sales slow. Shares had fallen as much as 22% early in the session, according to Yahoo Finance.
What Nick Scali told the market
According to its trading update released after the market closed on Wednesday:
- Profit guidance: underlying net profit after tax of A$28 million to A$32 million for the six months to 31 December 2026
- ANZ sales: first-quarter written sales orders fell 15%, and store traffic was down about 10%
- ANZ revenue: expected to be 11% to 14% lower for the half
- UK: written sales orders rose 29%, or 14% on a like-for-like basis
The company said trading conditions in Australia and New Zealand “remained challenging during the first quarter.” A year earlier, ANZ written sales orders had grown 11%.
That compares with A$41.0 million in the first half of FY26, according to Nick Scali’s February results, while consensus had been about A$39 million, according to Yahoo Finance. At the midpoint of A$30 million, that is a fall of about 27% on last year.
A cyber attack added to the pain
An August cyber security incident left Nick Scali’s ERP systems unavailable for about three weeks, with stores processing orders manually. About A$980,000 of consultant and legal costs will be reported as non-underlying, outside the profit guidance.
Brokers react
Citi downgraded Nick Scali to sell with a A$13.25 target, down from A$17.25. Macquarie kept its outperform rating but cut its target to A$15.20 from A$17.70, according to Market Index.
The insider angle: directors bought near A$19
Nick Scali directors bought shares on market in February 2026, according to Market Index records:
| Director | Date | Shares | Price | Change at A$12.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niran Peiris | 17 Feb | 5,194 | A$19.25 | -38% |
| Kathryn Parsons | 19 Feb | 1,350 | A$19.01 | -37% |
| Niran Peiris | 23 Feb | 5,435 | A$18.40 | -35% |
Peiris spent about A$200,000 across his two purchases. The shares are now about 53% below their high of A$25.72 earlier this year.
Newly appointed director Colette Garnsey, who joined the board on 19 October, holds no Nick Scali shares, according to her initial director’s notice. Our Megaport insider trading analysis explains how to read these filings.
What Nick Scali investors should watch
- Director trades in Appendix 3Y notices after the fall
- The AGM, for any update on second-quarter trading
- Interest rates and housing, which drive furniture demand
- UK growth, which is offsetting some of the ANZ weakness
Bottom line
Nick Scali’s warning suggests Australian consumers are cutting back on big-ticket items. Directors who bought at A$18 to A$19 in February are now well under water. Unlike Corporate Travel Management’s directors, who bought after a crash and are now in profit, they bought too early. The next filings will show whether insiders see value at these levels.
