Tuas Limited (ASX:TUA) has become a simpler story, but not an easier one.
For much of the past year, the market was asked to think about Tuas in two parts. There was Simba, the Singapore telco business already growing inside the group. Then there was the proposed M1 acquisition, a much larger step that would have changed the scale, balance sheet and regulatory profile of the company.
That second story has now fallen away. On 22 May 2026, Tuas announced the termination of the sale and purchase agreement relating to M1 Limited after conditions precedent were not fulfilled or waived by the long-stop date of 21 May 2026.
The receipt is short. The read-through is not.
The M1 deal was meant to change the size of the argument
Tuas first announced the proposed M1 acquisition on 11 August 2025. The transaction was pitched as a way to combine Simba’s fast-growing consumer telco model with M1’s established network and enterprise base. The deal carried an enterprise value of S$1.43 billion on a debt-free and cash-free basis, excluding M1’s ICT businesses.
That mattered because Tuas was no longer being valued only on Simba’s organic growth. The market also had to consider acquisition funding, integration risk, debt, regulatory approval and whether a larger Singapore telco could extract enough value from the combination.
For a while, that made Tuas a bigger story. Bigger stories come with bigger variables.
The collapse of the transaction removes some of those variables. It also removes the scale prize that management had been chasing.
Simba still has the growth numbers investors wanted to see
The awkward thing about the M1 collapse is that it landed against a business that, on its own numbers, was still moving in the right direction.
For the half year to 31 January 2026, Tuas reported revenue of S$91.9 million, up from S$73.2 million in the prior corresponding half. Underlying EBITDA was S$42.1 million, compared with S$33.1 million a year earlier. Statutory EBITDA was lower at S$31.6 million because it included pre-acquisition costs.
That is the part supporters of the stock will keep coming back to. Simba was still adding mobile and broadband customers. The company also said underlying EBITDA margin strengthened to 46%, from 45% in the prior corresponding half.
The business was not waiting for M1 to exist. It was already generating operating cash flow, with Tuas reporting S$50.1 million of net cash from operating activities for the half.
That is the cleanest version of the Tuas argument: the acquisition is gone, but the operating engine remains.
The harder question is what the regulator does next
The cleaner story has a regulatory shadow over it.
On 18 May 2026, Singapore’s Infocomm Media Development Authority said it had suspended its review of the proposed consolidation between M1 and Simba. IMDA said the issue related to alleged unauthorised use of radio frequency spectrum by Simba, which, if established, would breach Singapore’s Telecommunications Act and the conditions of Simba’s Facilities-Based Operations Licence.
Tuas said Simba was fully cooperating with IMDA and that its board was reviewing the circumstances concerning the alleged unauthorised use of spectrum.
That distinction matters. The M1 agreement has been terminated. The regulatory process around Simba has not disappeared with it.
For Tuas, the market question has shifted from “Can the company complete a major acquisition?” to “How much does the regulatory issue affect the existing Simba business?” Those are very different questions.
The cash pile gives Tuas time, not immunity
Tuas ended January 2026 with S$478.0 million in cash and term deposits, helped by A$430 million raised through share issuance during the half.
That gives the company options. It can keep funding network investment, absorb near-term disruption and decide what to do with capital originally raised around a much larger acquisition plan.
But cash does not settle the operating question by itself. Tuas guided to mobile and broadband capex of S$50 million to S$55 million for FY26 on a Simba standalone basis. That spend can support service quality and growth, but it also means the company is still investing into a competitive and tightly regulated market.
The strongest read is that Tuas now has a well-funded standalone telco with proven customer momentum.
The cautious read is that the balance sheet is only one part of the story. Licence conditions, spectrum use, customer churn and broadband growth now matter more than deal arithmetic.
The next update has to answer a different question
Before May, Tuas investors were watching completion risk. Now they are watching operating proof.
The next useful disclosures will be less about M&A ambition and more about Simba’s ordinary business: subscriber growth, average revenue per user, broadband take-up, capex discipline and any further regulatory update from IMDA.
The M1 deal would have made Tuas larger. Its collapse makes the investment debate narrower.
That may help in one way. There is less to model. But the remaining question is sharper: can Simba keep growing while the regulator is still looking closely?
